Confirmation Bias

“The seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a hypothesis in hand”

In other words, confirmation bias is the mental filtering of data to allow into one’s brain only that which confirms that which one already believes. Is this a sin for which you are guilty?

Anecdote, specious reasoning and the massaging of words into alien definitions are the hallmarks of pseudoscientists, religionists and politicians. With a little manipulation and constant repetition, just about anything appear to be the truth. This phenomenon was observed by psychologist John Mackay, who wrote about it in his landmark 1852 text, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

“When men wish to construct or support a theory, how they torture facts into their service!”

Concepts and constructs are sometimes created innocently in attempts to describe a particular perception of reality. Take for instance such simple words as liberal and conservative. Others that come to mind are patriot, and hero. These are words in our language that are often misconstrued and abused. They are “hot button” words, which bring differing levels of emotion to the surface in individuals.

In this venue you have seen me torture words in an attempt to deconstruct some of the mythologies our society has built around otherwise simple constructs. Most recently, and only because the conservatives have all but captured the airwaves, I’ve taken to picking on those arguments. The conservative movement is part and parcel with the religious right, so I tend to pick at that part of the spectrum as well. Regardless, just because that side of the political spectrum is my current target does not give the other side a pass. A wingnut is a wingnut, regardless of side, and misspent verbiage is painful regardless of mouthpiece.

There is an obvious difference between impartially evaluating evidence in order to come to an unbiased conclusion and building a case to justify a conclusion already drawn. The scientist represents the first instance, in that science seeks evidence on all sides of a question, evaluates it objectively, and draws a conclusion based upon evidence. Religionists and politicians more often represent the second side of this equation. These folk, using predetermined criteria, gather and give unwarranted weight to only that evidence which supports the searcher’s position. This second phenomenon is called confirmation bias, and the searcher, although their action is purposeful, is often unaware of the action. There are, however, those who practice this with full knowledge and intent.

Purposeful confirmation bias is known as case building, and may be illustrated by what attorneys and politicians do. An attorney's job is to make a case for one side of a legal dispute. A prosecutor tries to gather and present evidence in support of the contention that a crime has been committed, while a defense attorney will present evidence supporting the presumption of innocence. Neither side has much to really win or lose, and neither is committed to an unbiased weighing of all the evidence at hand. Each is motivated only to confirm a particular position. Politicians also give undue attention to arguments that support their position. When a politician points to counterargument, it is only to point to weakness.

Confirmation bias connotes a less explicit process of case building. It refers usually to unwitting selectivity in the acquisition and use of evidence. The line between deliberate selectivity in the use of evidence and unwitting molding of facts to fit hypotheses or beliefs is a difficult one to draw in practice, but the distinction is meaningful conceptually, and confirmation bias has more to do with the latter than with the former. The assumption that people can and do engage in case-building unwittingly, without intending to treat evidence in a biased way or even being aware of doing so, is fundamental to the concept.

From The Onion comes this timely little piece, and the following video clip illustrates confirmation bias.



Over the past few days I have spent a great deal of time reading the various blogs as the various sides dissect President Obama’s SCOTUS nominee. In at least a few instances I’ve posted comments to offer some counter to an unreasonable argument. What I have found is that the most conservative of these blogs tend to filter, or moderate comments, and in two instances my comments were never posted.

I leave it to you, gentle reader, to determine just what this represents, and I would love to read your comments. My blog is uncensored and your message will go live as soon as you push the button, so speak your mind.

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Do you love your kids?

There are a couple of interesting blog posts I’d like to recommend. One actually leads to the other.

Ambulance Driver is a friend of mine from somewhere south of the coonass line. He is a fair smart fellow with a heart bigger than his rather plump ass, and he has a young daughter by the name of KatyBeth who I dearly love. She calls me Uncle Donn and it breaks my crusty old heart. AD, despite his other shortcomings, makes a damn fine daddy for my darling KatyBeth. I’d find someone to help me whip his ass if he wasn’t. Maybe several sombodies.

I read AD’s blog pretty regular, and today I found a few day old post about someone else who loves her children. Archangel and Mrs. Archangel are in the midst of an international battle to regain her children. AD is asking that his readers pay a visit to their blog and look at the story. They are trying to raise money to pay the ever-mounting expenses of fighting the legal battle, but they aren’t standing on a corner with begging. Instead they are offering you value for your buck. These folks are right fair cooks. Maybe not as good as ol’ Mule Breath [blush], but still right fair. And they are offering something I would never offer. Their secret recipes.

Please pay a visit to Archangel’s blog and read the offer. The cookbook will be chuck full of finely crafted recipes sure to please, and the price should be twice what they are offering. I'm so certain that you will enjoy this book that I will offer you a double-your-money-back guarantee.

They need the sales… NOW folks… so please visit the blog, preorder a book and offer some support for good people trying to do the right thing for their children.

Please.
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Memorial Day

It had been on my mind to write a bit on the reasons for the day. Others have done such a fine job of the task that I feel compelled to simply turn to them for my message.

Ruth, over at Cab Drollery, has written in commemoration of our soldiers, airmen and sailors. Ruth is a sixtyish young lady from Sherman, Texas, and has seen several wars go by. Her message, titled Memorial To Something Worthwhile, is a prayer for reason, and for making the lives and deaths of our troops worthwhile.

Ken Taylor of Minority Report writes The Last Full Measure Of Devotion. Ken laments that there is "nothing that we say can bring them back nor honor them in the fullest extent that they so justifiably deserve." It can't be said any more clear.

Old NFO, a Viet Nam vet, posts something a little unusual for this modern war, and something the youngsters amongst us may not remember. But I remember. Bob Hope brought a little taste of home to servicemen and women across the globe for decades.

Andrew Sullivan posts Two Memorial Day Stories on The Daily Dish that will make you think.

One of hardest hitting is a story from the daily paper of State College, Pennsylvania. This morning the Centre Daily Times published the story of the lost life of a soldier in Viet Nam in 1969. 21-year old Dale Fisher was killed by friendly fire when he shouldn't have even been on the front. The story, titled Life Interrupted, is told by the fallen soldier's sister.

Those who serve and put their lives in the line of fire to protect the lives and liberties of Americans deserve praise and honor. These men and women deserve much more than this country has given. At the very least we must honor their memories on Memorial day. Remember the reason for the day.

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Lessons Learned

A major rallying cry by the right wing is the struggle against gun control. Over a decade past the Democrats lost congress due in part to the insistence of suburban Democrats to enact tough gun control legislation, and the disinclination of rural Dems to buck the party. This cost them in subsequent elections. It is likely, considering the close margin by which Bush 43 won the 2000 election, that Al Gore sunk his own Presidential hopes when he embraced the resurrection of Clinton era gun control legislation.

Now, thanks in large part to the excesses of the previous administration, Democrats again hold the White House and both chambers. The backlash against the Bush administration’s assaults on Constitutional liberties played a large part in the sea change, but there was more to it. Democrats, it seems, have learned a lesson.

In a Senate vote last week, a bill permitting concealed handgun license holders to carry in national parks passed when 27 Democrats crossed the aisle to vote with the Republicans. This week will bring even more change when the same Democrats take a giant first step toward overturning Democrat promoted legislation passed during the gun control heyday of 1994. Senate Veterans Affairs Committee members are this week expected to pass the Veterans Second Amendment Protection Act out of committee. The bill, co-sponsored by Virginia Democrat Jim Webb and North Carolina Republican Richard Burr, will then go to a floor vote where it is likely to pass with only minor opposition.

Today’s Democratic Party is not your father’s Democratic Party. Big city Dems remain stuck in the mire of the past decade, so they may continue fighting for gun control and against the Blue Dogs who have stepped out of line (see article on Kirsten Gillibrand), but the hardheads are in the minority and their gun control views will be marginalized by more reasonable Dems.

UPDATED May 21, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a stinging defeat for gun-control advocates, Congress has voted to allow people to carry loaded guns in national parks and wildlife refuges.

The House approved the measure, 279-147, on Wednesday, one day after the Senate acted.

A total of 105 Democrats in the House joined 174 Republicans in supporting the gun measure, which essentially restores a Bush administration policy that briefly allowed loaded guns in national parks earlier this year. The measure, which is included in a bill imposing new restrictions on credit card companies, allows licensed gun owners to bring firearms into national parks and wildlife refuges as long as they are allowed by state law.

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From MacPaper Today

This just in:

An Ohio man called 911 after getting in a fight with his adult son over a messy bedroom, The Plain Dealer reports.

Now the father, Andrew Mizsak, 63, says he "overreacted" and has declined to press charges against his 28-year-old son, also named Andrew.

The younger Mizsak is a member of the Bedford School Board, in a Cleveland suburb, and lives in a room in his father's basement.

The newspaper says that during the argument late last week, the son threw a plate of food across the kitchen table and made a fist at his father, prompting him to call police.

According to a police report, the newspaper says, the younger Andrew later agreed that he was lucky to live rent free in the house and was sent to clean up his room.

"He was crying uncontrollably and stated he would comply," the police report says.

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Do you think you could?

The quote from Jesse Ventura is now Internet legend.

"You give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders."

Many of the conservative bloggers and pundits have rushed to Dick's rescue, all saying the same thing Dick & Company have said all along; that waterboarding isn't all that bad.

Judging by the fact that this country has executed some folks who practiced that particular little "enhanced interrogation" technique on Americans, I'd have to say that Cheney's interpretation is rather novel.

Now comes this little ditty, from Playboy of all places.

This is not something I would attempt, but I would challenge those defending Cheney & Company to give it a run. Any takers?

HT Across the Great Divide
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Taliban Humor ala Jay Leno

One of the right wingnut blogs I read (and enjoy) is written by a fellow I consider to be pretty reasonable… even if his blogstuff doesn’t always show it. Today he posted a blurb sent to him by one of our soldiers serving in Afghanistan. Some of my more left leaning readers may find it over the edge, but to me it shows that even in the worst of circumstances… some humor can be found.

Hat Tip to Old NFO over at NOBODY ASKED ME.

YOU MAY BE TALIBAN IF...

1. You refine heroin for a living, but you have a moral objection to beer.

2. You own a $3,000 machine gun and $5,000 rocket launcher, but you can't afford shoes.

3. You have more wives than teeth.

4. You wipe your butt with your bare hand, but consider bacon "unclean."

5. You think vests come in two styles: bullet-proof and suicide.

6. You can't think of anyone you haven't declared Jihad against.

7. You consider television dangerous, but routinely carry explosives in your clothing.

8. You were amazed to discover that cell phones have uses other than setting off roadside bombs.

9. You have nothing against women and think every man should own at least one.

10. You've always had a crush on your neighbor's goat.

I omitted one that even I thought was a bit much (correct or not), so if you want to read the whole thing, cruise over to NFO’s blog.
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